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Beneath are plenty of Crude plus Condensate (C + C) manufacturing charts, often shortened to “oil”, for Non-OPEC nations. The charts are created from information supplied by the EIA’s Worldwide Power Statistics and are up to date to April 2023. That is the most recent and most detailed world oil manufacturing info obtainable. Data from different sources resembling OPEC, the STEO and country-specific websites resembling Russia, Brazil, Norway and China is used to offer a short-term outlook for future output and route for a couple of of those nations and the world. The US report has an expanded view past manufacturing by including rig and frac unfold charts.
The place STEO information was used, the ratio of C + C to All Liquids was calculated. The common for the final six months was used to venture the Might and June manufacturing numbers in a couple of instances.
World oil manufacturing and projection charts are offered on the finish of this put up.
April Non-OPEC oil manufacturing dropped by 407 kb/d to 51,049 kb/d. The most important decreases got here from Canada, US and Russia.
Utilizing information from the August 2023 STEO, a projection for Non-OPEC oil output was made for the interval Might 2023 to December 2024. (Pink graph). Output is anticipated to achieve 53,195 kb/d in December 2024, which is 787 kb/d greater than the December 2019 peak of 52,408 kb/d.
From Might 2023 to December 2024, oil manufacturing in Non-OPEC nations is anticipated to extend by 2,053 kb/d, a seemingly unrealistic forecast. In response to the STEO, the foremost contributors to the rise are anticipated to be the US, near 600 kb/d and Canada near 700 kb/d, each estimates thought-about to be on the excessive facet.
April Non-OPEC W/O US manufacturing dropped by 314 kb/d to 38,372 kb/d. Might manufacturing is projected to extend by 108 kb/d.
From Might 2023 to December 2024, manufacturing in Non-OPEC nations W/O the US is anticipated to extend by 1,356 kb/d.
Be aware that December 2024 output exceeds the pre-covid excessive of 39,552 kb/d in January 2020 by 284 kb/d.
Non-OPEC Oil Manufacturing Ranked by Nation
Listed above are the World’s 10 largest Non-OPEC producers. The standards for inclusion within the desk is that all the nations produce greater than 1,000 kb/d.
April’s manufacturing drop for these ten Non-OPEC nations was 401 kb/d whereas as an entire the Non-OPEC nations noticed a manufacturing lower of 407 kb/d. The highest 4 producers had a mixed output drop of 463 kb/d.
In April 2023, these 10 nations produced 83.5% of Non-OPEC oil manufacturing.
OPEC’s C + C manufacturing decreased by 26 kb/d in April whereas YoY it elevated by 142 kb/d. World MoM manufacturing decreased by 433 kb/d whereas YoY output elevated by 2,093 kb/d.
Non-OPEC Oil Manufacturing Charts
The EIA reported that Brazil’s manufacturing elevated by 57 kb/d in April to three,172 kb/d.
Brazil’s Nationwide Petroleum Affiliation (BNPA) reported that output in Might and June elevated and that June elevated by 166 kb/d to three,367 kb/d primarily because of new venture start-ups, a brand new document excessive, purple markers.
A lot of Brazil’s upcoming 2023 manufacturing development of near 100 kb/d will come from the extremely productive pre-salt fields. From April 2022 to April 2023, manufacturing from the pre-salt fields elevated by 173 kb/d.
In response to the April 2023 IEA Oil Market Report: “We forecast provide to achieve a brand new document excessive of three.42 mb/d this yr, up 300 kb/d y-o-y, as platform upkeep returns to regular scheduling and 5 extra FPSOs come on-line.“
In response to the August OPEC MOMR: “Two new FPSOs began manufacturing throughout Might, with Petrobras pumping the primary oil from the FPSO Anna Nery put in on the Marlim complicated within the offshore Campos Basin. In response to Petrobras, the Buzios subsalt fields additionally obtained its fifth manufacturing unit, with the FPSO Almirante Barroso. Petrobras’ oil output fell by round 0.6% within the 2Q23 y-o-y because of losses from upkeep, along with the pure decline of mature oil fields and a few asset gross sales. Nonetheless, the crude oil output is anticipated to be supported by offshore start-ups introduced originally of the yr.”
In response to the EIA, Canada’s manufacturing declined by 187 kb/d in April to 4,446 kb/d. The Might drop to 4,351 kb/d, together with April’s was because of important upkeep on the oil sands mines and upgraders. The STEO is forecasting a manufacturing rebound in June to 4,480 kb/d.
In response to the OPEC July MOMR : “Scheduled upkeep programmes throughout 2Q23 and 3Q23 are anticipated to melt output. It’s the oil sands which can be projected to be the principle driver of Canada’s manufacturing by means of to the top of the yr, pushed by Kearl debottlenecking and CNRL (Canadian Pure Assets) Horizon optimization. Moreover, the Terra Nova Floating Manufacturing Storage and Offloading unit (FPSO) is anticipated to restart manufacturing in mid-2023.
This chart reveals the post-pandemic pattern in bitumen manufacturing in Alberta and the info is supplied by the Canada Power Regulator. Manufacturing in April and Might 2023 was affected by extreme climate and plant upkeep. On common, complete manufacturing has been growing at a charge of three.76 kb/d/mth, brown OLS. Trying on the two completely different extraction strategies, it seems that In Situ is slowly growing whereas mined bitumen is holding regular.
In response to the OPEC August MOMR report: Crude bitumen manufacturing output fell m-o-m by 259 tb/d, and artificial crude declined m-o-m by 125 tb/d. Taken collectively, crude bitumen and artificial crude manufacturing dropped by 384 tb/d to 2.5 mb/d.
The EIA reported China oil output in April dropped by 73 kb/d to 4,210 kb/d.
The China Nationwide Bureau of Statistics reported that manufacturing throughout Might elevated to 4,256 kb/d.
Whereas China’s manufacturing development has risen steadily since 2018, it could be approaching its post-pandemic excessive.
In response to the OPEC July MOMR: “Pure decline charges are anticipated to be offset by extra development by means of extra infill wells and EOR initiatives amid efforts by state-owned oil corporations to safeguard power provides.
For 2024, Chinese language liquid manufacturing is anticipated to stay regular y-o-y and is forecast to common 4.6 m/d. For subsequent yr, Liuhua 11-1, Shayan and Liuhua 4-1 (redevelopment) are deliberate to come back on stream below CNOOC and PetroChina. On the identical time, the principle ramp-ups are anticipated from the Changqing, Kenli 10-2, Wushi 17-2 and Kenli 6-4.”
In response to this supply: From the low level in 2018 to the height in 2023, China has added greater than 600,000 barrels a day of additional manufacturing – extra crude than some OPEC+ nations generate each day. Pumping about 4.3 million barrels a day now, China is once more the world’s fifth-largest oil producer, solely behind the US, Saudi Arabia, Russia and Canada, and forward of Iraq.
In response to the EIA, Kazakhstan’s output elevated by 2 kb/d in April to 1,905 kb/d. The STEO is forecasting a manufacturing drop to 1,809 kb/d in Might and holding regular in June at 1,809 kb/d.
Mexico’s manufacturing in April was 1,964 kb/d a rise of 29 kb/d over March. Output dropped to 1,959 kb/d in Might and June, in keeping with Pemex.
Mexico has not too long ago revised its definition of condensate. This has resulted within the EIA including an additional 60 kb/d, on common, to the Pemex report. The purple markers embrace the extra 60 kb/d.
The EIA reported Norway’s April’s manufacturing to be 1,827 kb/d. The Norway Petroleum Directorate (NPD) reported that Might’s manufacturing dropped to 1,781 kb/d after which rebounded to 1,818 kb/d in June. (Pink markers).
In response to the NPD : “Oil manufacturing in June was 0.6 % greater than the NPD’s forecast and 0.5 % decrease than the forecast to date this yr.”
In response to this supply: “The North Sea’s greatest oil discipline Johan Sverdrup now has the capability to provide as a lot as 755,000 b/d of crude.”
Oman’s manufacturing has risen very constantly because the low of Might 2020. Oman’s April output was basically flat however dropped to 1,043 kb/d in Might.
Qatar’s April output was unchanged at 1,322 kb/d, probably because of lack of up to date info.
The EIA reported Russia’s April manufacturing was 10,077 kb/d. Utilizing information from the August STEO report, Russian output is anticipated to drop to 9,901 kb/d in Might 2023.
Utilizing information from Argus Media, Russian manufacturing, as beforehand reported by the Power Ministry, was estimated for April and Might. For April and Might, Argus reported that Russian manufacturing of crude was 9,730 kb/d and 9,500 kb/d, respectively. Might manufacturing is obtainable right here. Utilizing info from this S & P International article, Russian condensate manufacturing is shut to eight% of crude manufacturing. Including the 8% to the crude manufacturing for April and Might leads to C + C manufacturing of 10,508 kb/d and 10,260 kb/d, respectively.
“Vienna — Russia’s condensate manufacturing averaged 833,000 b/d in November, power minister Alexander Novak mentioned Friday.
Stripping the November work out from Russia’s beforehand reported oil output information reveals that crude manufacturing was 10.41 million b/d within the month.
Russia is looking for to exclude its condensate volumes from its manufacturing quota below a provide reduce settlement with OPEC and 9 different allies, which the coalition will try to finalize Friday in Vienna.”
Previously when info was straight obtainable from the Russian Ministry of Power, the distinction between the Russian Ministry and EIA was 404 kb/d greater. Evaluating the 2 impartial estimates above, Russian April output is 431 kb/d greater whereas Might is 359 kb/d greater. Use of the Argus information supplies manufacturing charges fairly in line with the EIA estimates.
U.S. Might oil manufacturing decreased by 15 kb/d to 12,662 kb/d, a small change, primarily as a result of upward revision of April output from 12,615 kb/d to 12,677 kb/d.
The darkish blue graph, taken from the August 2023 STEO, is the forecast for U.S. oil manufacturing from June 2023 to December 2024. Output for December 2024 is anticipated to be 13,359 kb/d which is 359 kb/d greater than the November 2019 peak of 13,000 kb/d. Be aware the distinction between the August and July STEO forecasts for US oil manufacturing. The August forecast is between 125 kb/d and 350 kb/d greater than reported within the July STEO forecast.
Whereas general US oil manufacturing decreased by 15 kb/d in Might, the Onshore L48 had a manufacturing improve of 19 kb/d to 10,527 kb/d. The sunshine blue graph is the STEO projection for output to December 2024 for the Onshore L48.
These six nations full the record of Non-OPEC nations with annual manufacturing between 500 kb/d and 1,000 kb/d. Be aware that the UK has been added to this record since its manufacturing has been beneath 1,000 kb/d since 2020.
Their mixed April manufacturing was 3,891 kb/d, up 44 kb/d from March.
The general output from the above six nations has been in a gradual regular decline since 2014 and seems to have accelerated after 2019.
World Oil Manufacturing Ranked by Nation
Above are listed the World’s twelfth largest oil producers. In January 2022, these 12 nations produced 76.8% of the world’s oil. On a MoM foundation, manufacturing decreased by 413 kb/d whereas on a YoY foundation, manufacturing elevated by 2,133 kb/d.
World oil manufacturing decreased by 433 kb/d in April. The most important decreases got here from Iraq, 210 kb/d and Canada, 187 kb/d whereas Saudi Arabia added 350 kb/d.
World Oil Manufacturing Projection
World oil manufacturing in April decreased by 433 kb/d to 81,784 kb/d.(Inexperienced graph).
This chart additionally initiatives World C + C manufacturing out to December 2024. It makes use of the August 2023 STEO report together with the Worldwide Power Statistics to make the projection. (Pink markers).
The purple graph forecasts that World crude manufacturing in December 2024 can be 83,432 kb/d and is 1,151 kb/d decrease than the November 2018 peak. Be aware the massive improve to 82,028 kb/d in October 2023. This might be because of Saudi Arabia reversing a part of its September 2023 1,000 kb/d reduce.
World with out the US oil output in April decreased by 340 kb/d to 69,107 kb/d. Might’s output is anticipated to lower by shut to a different 416 kb/d to 68,691 kb/d. December 2024 output of 70,072 kb/d is 2,719 kb/d decrease than October 2018 output of 72,791 kb/d.
World oil manufacturing W/O the U.S. from April 2022 to December 2024 is forecast to extend by a complete of 965 kb/d.
Authentic Put up
Editor’s Be aware: The abstract bullets for this text have been chosen by Searching for Alpha editors.
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