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The thought of the Western Cape’s secession from South Africa continues to collect momentum, with the newest ballot displaying nicely over half of those that stay within the province assist independence. After the province’s well-publicised Devolution Discussion board petered out, the Cape Independence Advocacy Group is now demanding that DA chief John Steenhuisen maintain his promise to them and ensures a referendum is held. On this interview, spokesman Phil Craig shares the newest analysis information and explains that the intention is to drive this referendum on independence to be held concurrently with SA’s 2024 Nationwide election. – Alec Hogg
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Related timestamps from the interview
00:09 – Introductions
01:03 – Phil Craig on who they surveyed
02:03 – On what number of they’ve accomplished over time
03:16 – On how he responds to the criticism of the thought of Cape Independence
04:58 – On if there’s a change in authorities and the way that impacts Cape Independence
07:38 – The information. 68% need a referendum. What does that imply
08:31 – What proportion of the individuals that you simply polled stated whenever you get that referendum, they’ll really vote for Independence
09:44 – Might this escalate into warfare
11:30 – On if the devolution of powers is a center floor
13:13 – On the racial perceptions of Cape Independence
14:30 – The place do the Patriotic Alliance and Freedom Entrance Plus stand on this
16:05 – Chance of Gayton McKenzie being president of Western Cape if Unbiased
18:18 – The place do they go from right here
20:42 – having a referendum on whether or not the Cape ought to be impartial for the individuals of the Western Cape on Election Day 2024
22:55 – Conclusions
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Edited transcript of the interview between Alec Hogg and Phil Craig
Alec Hogg: I’m right here with Phil Craig, the spokesperson for the Cape Independence Advocacy Group. Phil, it’s been some time since we final spoke, so it’s nice to catch up and focus on the developments concerning Cape Independence. Loads has been taking place on this area. Might you share some insights? Cape Independence, as you’ve been advocating, pertains to the Western Cape’s potential secession from South Africa. Are the individuals of the Western Cape aligned with this imaginative and prescient? A current survey by your group has produced intriguing outcomes. Earlier than delving into these, may you make clear the survey’s demographics? On condition that over 50% of the Western Cape’s inhabitants falls below the previous “colored” classification, it’s important to know the variety of these surveyed. Might you elaborate on the teams you included?
Phil Craig: Actually, Alec. Our survey is meticulously designed to reflect the area’s demographic make-up. We aimed for a complete illustration, encompassing numerous racial backgrounds, genders, and age teams. The survey was initiated by way of random cellphone calls utilizing a database of cell numbers spanning all of South Africa. We fastidiously ensured that respondents have been completely from the Western Cape. As soon as the information was collected, we undertook changes to make sure it precisely mirrored the precise inhabitants distribution. In essence, our survey covers a real cross-section of the Western Cape’s populace, devoid of any manipulation or bias.
Alec Hogg: I admire the detailed rationalization, Phil. What number of surveys have you ever carried out over time to trace these tendencies?
Phil Craig: This marks our third survey endeavor. We carried out surveys in 2020 and 2021, took a hiatus in 2022, and have simply concluded our most up-to-date examine in 2023.
Alec Hogg: Fascinating. Have you ever noticed any discernible tendencies within the outcomes over time?
Phil Craig: Completely, Alec. The tendencies have been remarkably constant. Assist for the thought of a referendum concerning Cape Independence has persistently outpaced direct assist for secession itself. This isn’t shocking; such a trajectory is logical. With every passing 12 months, we’ve famous a gentle enhance in assist, a development that correlates with the deteriorating situations in South Africa. As individuals turn into extra conversant in the idea of Cape Independence and its viability, consciousness and acceptance have grown hand in hand.
Alec Hogg: It’s intriguing to see these tendencies unfold, Phil. Nevertheless, as you’re nicely conscious, not everyone seems to be in favor of Cape Independence, together with people residing past the Western Cape and even some throughout the Democratic Alliance management, the occasion at the moment governing the province. When going through criticism or opposition on this matter, how do you reply?
Phil Craig: Certainly, Alec, differing views are pure. Political events are pushed by their very own agendas, typically oriented towards nationwide pursuits. For the Democratic Alliance (DA), a celebration with nationwide aspirations, Cape Independence presents a difficult narrative. The DA’s focus is primarily nationwide, and Cape Independence doesn’t neatly align with their aims. Presently, they’re advocating for a binary alternative within the 2024 elections, overlooking the third possibility that Cape Independence represents for the Western Cape. This message may be inconvenient for the DA’s overarching imaginative and prescient, nevertheless it’s important for many who search a extra region-specific route.
Alec Hogg: Your insights are illuminating, Phil. What concerning the potential state of affairs the place the nationwide authorities modifications arms in 2024? If, as an example, a coalition authorities assumes energy, and the ANC is not in management, how would that influence the Cape Independence motion? Would the thought nonetheless maintain weight in such a state of affairs?
Phil Craig: That’s a thought-provoking query, Alec. The viability of Cape Independence isn’t inherently tied to the ruling occasion’s identification on the nationwide stage. Whereas shifts in authorities can definitely affect the panorama, our focus stays on advocating for a referendum that permits the individuals of the Western Cape to determine their future. No matter who’s in energy nationally, the will for regional autonomy persists, and our mission stays to facilitate that democratic alternative.
Alec Hogg: However would this spell the top of the Cape Independence motion?
Phil Craig: I don’t imagine so. The reason is that the will for Cape Independence isn’t solely tied to the ruling occasion on the nationwide stage. The individuals of the Western Cape nonetheless search the federal government they’ve voted for. Think about a coalition authorities – it’s a confluence of events with numerous viewpoints. Some would possibly endorse race-based insurance policies, whereas others received’t. These variations have to be reconciled to kind a useful authorities. To deal with your query instantly, if there was a viable option to salvage South Africa, then sure, we’d need to reevaluate Cape Independence’s objective. Our final objective is securing a future for our households, and this aspiration stems from the present challenges inside Africa. If the context have been totally different, the notion of Cape Independence may not have emerged.
Alec Hogg: Transferring on to the survey outcomes, the information reveals that 68% of respondents assist the thought of a referendum. Might you elaborate on the importance of this discovering?
Phil Craig: Actually, Alec. The survey query was clear: “Do you assist or oppose the thought of a referendum within the Western Cape to check whether or not individuals within the province would really like the Western Cape to turn into an impartial nation separate from South Africa?” The end result was as follows: 68.0% in assist, 30.2% opposed, and 1.9% undecided or didn’t state a desire.
Alec Hogg: That’s fairly complete certainly.
Phil Craig: Completely, the information is kind of complete.
Alec Hogg: So, this primarily signifies that almost all of individuals need the chance to determine the way forward for the Western Cape when it comes to its independence. What concerning the subsequent query, which delves into the share of respondents who would really vote for independence in such a referendum?
Phil Craig: Assist for Cape Independence turns into barely extra nuanced once we contemplate the exit query. We requested this query at numerous factors throughout the survey, however the exit query is usually probably the most correct measure. The query posed was, “Now pondering once more, do you assist or oppose the Western Cape changing into an impartial nation?” The outcomes present that 58.4% have been in favour, 34.8% opposed, and 6.7% have been both undecided or didn’t reply. Due to this fact, we’ve got 68% in assist of a referendum and 58% in assist of Cape Independence itself.
Alec Hogg: This definitely paints a transparent image. Shifting gears barely, historic parallels can typically make clear present conditions. I’ve been studying about Abraham Lincoln’s presidency, the place the Southern states, analogous to the Western Cape, voted overwhelmingly to retain slavery. Might Cape Independence have comparable implications?
Phil Craig: Whereas historic parallels will be insightful, we have to method them cautiously. The comparability you’ve drawn is fascinating. Nevertheless, in terms of Cape Independence, the democratic course of and self-determination are on the forefront. To check a name for a democratic vote to retain or reject sure insurance policies with a state of affairs rooted in slavery is a major stretch. We firmly imagine in democratic rules, and our advocacy for Cape Independence rests on the will to permit the individuals of the Western Cape to find out their very own path, devoid of repression or coercion.
Alec Hogg: Certainly, the essence of democracy includes respecting the voice of the individuals. Talking of democracy, how do numerous political events outdoors the Democratic Alliance, such because the Patriotic Alliance and the Freedom Entrance Plus, align along with your trigger?
Phil Craig: The Patriotic Alliance’s stance on Cape Independence seems to be one in all opposition, and our communications haven’t yielded vital engagement. As for the Freedom Entrance Plus, they align extra favorably with Cape Independence, and their supporters replicate this alignment.
Alec Hogg: Given the views and challenges you face, how do you deal with the notion that Cape Independence is a few group of people searching for to protect privilege, akin to creating a bigger model of Orania?
Phil Craig: That notion is a distortion of our aims. Our motion is basically non-racial, with a give attention to democracy and good governance. Knowledge from our survey signifies that Cape Independence enjoys assist throughout numerous racial communities, and the majority of our supporters are from the coloured neighborhood. The declare of a racially unique agenda is baseless, and it’s typically employed to deflect from the actual points at hand – the search for regional autonomy and higher governance.
Alec Hogg: Transparency and communication are essential in addressing such misconceptions. Contemplating all these elements, what lies forward for the Cape Independence motion?
Phil Craig: We’re launching a marketing campaign to demand a Cape Independence referendum on Election Day 2024. This effort is a collaboration involving Cape Hexley, the Freedom Entrance Plus, the Cape Independence Social gathering, the Cape Youth Entrance, and the Swartland Axi Group. Our marketing campaign facilities on capereferendum.org, the place we’re reaching out to Premier Alan Winde and President Cyril Ramaphosa to request the referendum. We’ve given them till October tenth to substantiate their willingness to conduct it. If their response is detrimental, we’ve got additional steps deliberate. Our resolve stays agency – the Western Cape deserves the fitting to voice its preferences, and we received’t be silenced. Whether or not it’s the established order or the prospect of Cape Independence, the individuals of the Western Cape have to be allowed to determine their very own future.
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